1. Executive Summary
- The Fed is considering easing mortgage lending regulations for banks.
- Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra delivers up to 50x better AI performance.
- GDDR7 memory shortages may delay Nvidia’s new RTX GPUs.
- UBS now anticipates two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
2. 🌍 Global Market
📉 Global Outlook
Fed Considers Easing Mortgage Regulations
Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman announced the consideration of easing bank regulations concerning mortgage servicing assets (MSRs) to encourage banks to expand their mortgage lending activities. This initiative aims to entice banks back into the mortgage market by removing the requirement for MSRs to be deducted from regulatory capital, while maintaining a 250% risk weighting. Such changes are expected to inject liquidity into the housing market, foster greater bank participation in mortgage business, and positively impact the overall housing finance landscape.
UBS Forecasts Two Fed Rate Cuts This Year
UBS has revised its outlook, now expecting the Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts later this year. This revised forecast likely incorporates recent economic indicators and statements from Fed officials, reflecting a potential moderation in the U.S. economy and an easing of inflationary pressures. Fed rate cuts could serve as a positive market signal, enhancing investor sentiment towards equities and stimulating economic activity by reducing borrowing costs.
Japan’s Economic Surge and ‘Buy Japan’ Trend
Japan recently recorded a 1.1% growth rate, surpassing South Korea after 27 years, and following the House of Representatives election, a ‘Buy Japan’ trade emerged with a strengthening Yen and a 4.96% surge in the Nikkei index. This phenomenon results from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide electoral victory combined with an unexpected Yen appreciation, breaking the inverse correlation where the Japanese stock market previously relied on a weaker Yen, thereby highlighting the investment appeal of Japanese assets. If Japan’s robust economic growth and the ‘Buy Japan’ trend persist, further foreign capital inflows into Japanese equity and bond markets are anticipated, which would enhance the overall vitality of Japan’s financial markets.
🚀 Market (Stock/Indices)
U.S. Major Indices Face Downward Pressure Amid Caution
Nasdaq futures saw a decline, and the S&P 500 struggled to breach the 7,000-point threshold, indicating overall downward pressure on major indices. This cautious investor sentiment is attributed to anticipation of key economic data releases, leading to a prevalent wait-and-see approach. Consequently, the market is facing significant resistance levels, suggesting potential for increased volatility in the near term.
Emerging Market Assets Gain on Yuan Strength
Emerging market assets showed a slight uptick, bolstered by the strengthening offshore yuan. This trend is a result of combined factors, including optimism for China’s economic recovery and expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar. It signals potential capital inflows into emerging markets, positively impacting investor sentiment.
Gold Exceeds $5,000, Gains Limited by Thin Trade
Gold prices surpassed $5,000, though holiday-thinned trading limited further gains. Geopolitical uncertainties and inflation-hedging demand provided underlying support for gold, while reduced market liquidity constrained a sharper price increase. Sustained high gold prices reflect ongoing preference for safe-haven assets amidst an uncertain macroeconomic environment.
Korean Retail Investors Flock to Hong Kong AI/Semiconductor ETFs
Korean individual investors net bought $133.5 billion in Hong Kong-listed stocks, with a significant focus on AI and semiconductor-related ETFs. This reflects strong conviction in the growth potential of the artificial intelligence and semiconductor industries, coupled with a search for lucrative opportunities in overseas markets. This investment flow highlights continued global interest in technology sectors and is expected to drive capital into specific Hong Kong-listed assets.
Bitcoin Seeks Direction After Recent Losses
Bitcoin is currently searching for direction after experiencing four consecutive weekly losses, despite a brief recovery to 100 million KRW. The recent downturn stems from broader macroeconomic uncertainties and profit-taking, while the recovery suggests underlying support for the cryptocurrency. The crypto market remains highly volatile, with Bitcoin’s future trajectory dependent on overall market sentiment and regulatory developments.
Shiba Inu Rebounds 25% from Lows
Shiba Inu successfully rebounded, rising 25% from its lowest point. This resurgence likely stems from renewed speculative interest in meme coins or specific community-driven events. While signaling a potential short-term price recovery, the long-term sustainability of such gains in meme coins remains highly speculative.
Roubini Warns of Crypto’s End Amidst Bitcoin Recovery
Nouriel Roubini, renowned for predicting the 2008 Lehman crisis, has warned of the ‘end of cryptocurrency,’ even as Bitcoin recovered to 100 million KRW. His skepticism reflects concerns over the inherent lack of intrinsic value, speculative nature, and regulatory risks within the digital asset space. This high-profile warning could influence institutional investor sentiment and future regulatory actions concerning the crypto market.
🤖 Tech (AI/Semiconductors)
NVIDIA AI Chip Performance Boost & Supply Chain Trends
NVIDIA’s Blackwell Ultra chips are set to deliver up to 50x better performance and 35x lower costs for Agentic AI, significantly improving tokens per watt and enhancing long-context workloads. This advancement stems from its optimized architecture for complex AI agent processing, poised to accelerate AI adoption across industries. However, reports of potential delays for GeForce RTX 50 Super and RTX 60 series GPUs due to a global GDDR7 memory shortage, impacting RTX 5070 Ti manufacturing, suggest ongoing supply chain constraints in NVIDIA’s consumer GPU segment.
Microsoft’s AI & Azure Cloud Technology Expansion
Microsoft is aggressively enhancing its AI capabilities, testing Researcher and Analyst agents in Copilot Tasks, and integrating AI performance insights into Bing Webmaster Tools. The company has completed three Azure Availability Zones in Saudi Arabia to power generative AI and is exploring superconductor technology to address surging AI power demands. These initiatives solidify Microsoft’s position as a leading enterprise AI solution provider, driving cloud adoption and reinforcing its commitment to scalable and sustainable AI infrastructure.
Google’s Gemini Model Advancement & AI Security Strategy
Google is continuously upgrading its Gemini models, introducing new image generation capabilities with Gemini 2.5 Flash Image and enhancing the Gemini 3 Deep Think model for science and engineering applications. These advancements are expected to bolster Google’s competitive edge in the AI landscape and expand enterprise partnerships for agentic AI solutions. Concurrently, Google is strengthening its defenses against cyber threats that increasingly leverage AI, highlighting the critical importance of robust security alongside AI development.
🌏 Region (China/Eurozone)
U.S. to Cooperate with South Korea, Japan on Shipbuilding Rebuilding
The U.S. White House has specified cooperation with South Korea and Japan in its ‘America’s Maritime Action Plan’ to rebuild its shipbuilding industry.
This initiative aims to reduce reliance on untrustworthy suppliers and leverage historical alliances to strengthen the U.S. maritime industrial base.
Such strategic partnerships are expected to foster technological exchange and supply chain resilience, potentially boosting the global shipbuilding sector and strengthening regional economic ties.
Eurozone Industry Stumbles, Yet Outlook Remains Bright
Despite recent stumbles, the overall outlook for the Eurozone industry remains bright.
This optimism is likely driven by underlying economic resilience, potential easing of monetary policy, and improving global demand.
An improving industrial landscape in the Eurozone could contribute to broader economic recovery, impacting trade balances and investment flows within the region.
Japan’s Narrow Growth Tests Policy Paths
Japan is experiencing narrow economic growth, posing challenges for its fiscal and monetary policy paths.
This indicates a struggle to achieve broader, sustained economic expansion, possibly due to structural issues, demographic challenges, or insufficient domestic demand.
The government may need to pursue innovative and coordinated policy adjustments to stimulate a more robust and inclusive recovery, influencing investor confidence in the Japanese market.
By Lan Analyst at 2026-02-17 07:04:48
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
While based on reliable sources, accuracy is not guaranteed.
All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.